Growth rate in per capita income is projected to fall to the lowest in 21 years this financial year - except for the financial years 2019-20 (FY20) and 2020-21 (FY21) - according to the first advance estimates. During the last 21 years, the two periods - FY20 and FY21 - saw growth rates in per capita income lower than 7.9 per cent, seen during FY24. This was despite the real gross domestic product (GDP) being projected to grow by 7.3 per cent in the current financial year by the first advance estimates.
Could the MPCE survey results be used as a basis of reconstructing the Consumer Price Index with new weights, asks Madan Sabnavis.
Public sector banks' cumulative profit crossed the Rs 1 lakh crore-mark in the financial year ended March 2023, with market leader State Bank of India (SBI) accounting for nearly half of the total earnings. From posting a total net loss of Rs 85,390 crore in 2017-18, the Public Sector Banks (PSBs) have come a long way as their profit touched Rs 1,04,649 crore in 2022-23, according to an analysis of their financial results. These 12 PSBs witnessed 57 per cent increase in total profit compared to Rs 66,539.98 crore earned in 2021-22.
The Indian economy is likely to post better than anticipated growth in the second quarter (July-September) owing to robust urban consumption and expansion in services, a Business Standard analysis of high-frequency indicators showed. While gross domestic product growth in the September quarter is expected to come below the 7.8 per cent print in the June quarter due to a favourable base fading, analysts say the print will be much closer to 7 per cent than the 6.5 per cent anticipated earlier. While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had estimated 6.5 per cent growth for July-September, last month Governor Shaktikanta Das said the growth figure would surprise on the upside.
The economy may grow by around 7 per cent this financial year as estimated by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), say economists with various organisations. The first advance estimates for 2023-24 will be released on Friday by the National Statistical Organisation (NSO), an exercise done for calculating ratios such as the fiscal deficit. The interim Budget will be presented on February 1.
Central Bank of India classified its loans to Go First as non-performing assets (NPAs) in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24). The no-frills carrier has been under insolvency proceedings since May 2023 and ceased operating flights on May 3 this year. The public sector lender's exposure, including government-guaranteed emergency credit to the ailing airline, amounts to about Rs 2,000 crore.
Loan against gold as a product is catching on fast. Let's keep the momentum going, but aim for sustainable growth. A few bad apples should not ruin the brunch, argues Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
To check digital frauds, the government has disconnected 70 lakh mobile numbers so far involved in cybercrime or financial frauds, Financial Services Secretary Vivek Joshi said on Tuesday. Emerging from a meeting to discuss issues related to financial cyber security and increasing digital payment fraud, Joshi, who chaired the meeting, said banks have been asked to strengthen the system and processes in this regard. More such meetings would take place, he said, adding the next meeting is scheduled in January.
The first quarter of calendar 2023 will see new faces heading four large public-sector banks -- Canara Bank, Bank of Baroda, Indian Overseas Bank, and Bank of India.
Despite high headline numbers, the output of one-third of the segments in the manufacturing sector in August stood below even that in the same month in 2011-12, when the new index of industrial production (IIP) series started. This is despite the fact that manufacturing grew 9.3 per cent in the month, driving up IIP growth to a 14-month high of 10.3 per cent. Part of it is due to the devastation of these product categories by lockdowns induced by Covid waves and subdued export conditions, while part of it needs to be assessed further.
>It's not easy to predict the market. But there are at least two positive factors to back the PSU banks, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Longer-tenure FDs generally give higher returns. Nonetheless, going for a tenure higher than two to three years is not advisable.
India's outward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) nosedived to $11.12 billion in January-June (H1 2023) from $23.57 billion in the same period last year, indicative of the slowdown in the global economy, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data. The outward FDI expressed as the total financial commitment, has three components, namely equity, loan and guarantees. The sharp contraction in the commitments (outward FDI) was prominent in the April-June 2023 period.
But the government will present a second tranche of Supplementary Demands for Grants during the Budget session of Parliament in February, when it can seek additional spending.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) latest order on unsecured loans is set to hit the banking sector's growth in the near-term, cautioned analysts, as they see banks slowing down on aggressive retail lending. Besides, cost of funds for non-banking finance companies (NBFC) is expected to inch up as banks will pass on higher capital charge to NBFCs. "We believe the fallout of the RBI action will be mainly on growth, given the rising dependence on unsecured retail loans and lending to NBFCs for growth.
People are availing far more of certain kinds of unsecured loans than was the case before the pandemic. Bank lending for buying consumer durables and funding of credit cards and other personal loans have risen by Rs 6.9 trillion between August 2019 and August 2023, shows a Business Standard analysis of data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). These loans are typically unsecured, which means they are provided without collateral.
Reflecting subdued global economic growth, India's outward foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 33.3 per cent sequentially to $1.21 billion in August, compared to over $1.82 billion in July.
Half the stocks in the Nifty 100 index have seen a reduction in their target price by analysts this year due to fears of lacklustre earnings growth and uncertain economic environment. Adani Green Energy, FSN E-Commerce (Nykaa), Adani Ports & SEZ and Indus Towers are among the companies that have seen the maximum cut in TPs during the first three months of calendar 2023, shows Bloomberg data. On the other hand, Canara Bank, JSW Steel and Bank of Baroda have seen the highest increase in TPs.
Interrupting a two-month streak of decline, outward foreign direct investment (FDI) rose sequentially to $1.85 billion in July over $1.07 billion in June, an increase of 73 per cent. However, it was lower than the $2.18 billion in July last year, according to the Reserve Bank of India data. Outbound FDI, expressed as financial commitment, has three components - equity, loans, and guarantees.
As the fight for deposits intensifies, the cost of money will rise and the margin will be under further pressure, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
A man and his brother-in-law were killed and six others, including a pregnant woman, were injured when a person who works as a bank security guard opened fire on them from his double-barrel gun after an altercation over pet dogs in Indore city of Madhya Pradesh, the police said on Friday.
The Reserve Bank is planning to extend wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) for transactions for interbank borrowing or call money market, sources said on Tuesday. The pilot in the wholesale segment, known as the Digital Rupee -Wholesale (e-W), was launched on November 1, 2022, with the use case being limited to the settlement of secondary market transactions in government securities. "RBI is now planning to go into the interbank borrowing market.
Go First's lenders have agreed in principle to support the airline's request for Rs 400 crore interim funding to restart its operations. The airline temporarily halted operations on May 2, and its insolvency plea was admitted by the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) on May 10. On Wednesday, the airline's resolution professional Shailendra Ajmera submitted a business plan and a request for over Rs 400 crore funding to airline's committee of creditors (CoC).
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries Ltd climbed eight spots to the 45th rank, the highest for an Indian company on Forbes' latest Global 2000 list of public companies worldwide.
Investment growth moderated slightly in the economy during the first quarter (Q1) of the current financial year (2023-24, or FY24), notwithstanding the front-loading of capital expenditure (capex) by the Centre. This was also the case despite a pick-up in demand during the period after two dismal consecutive quarters. Although growth in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), representing investment, fell to a five-quarter low of 7.96 per cent, the comparison with the first two quarters of the previous year is a bit askew due to the low year-on-year (Y-o-Y) base of those periods.
As banks' chase for customers to collect cheap deposits is not fructifying, they are forced to offer inflation-beating real interest rates on fixed deposits now, and state-run banks led by Punjab & Sind Bank tops the chart offering 8-8.50 per cent per annum deposit rate. Banks are forced to offer inflation-beating deposit rates for a tenor ranging from 200 to 800 days as credit growth has been far outpacing deposit mobilization throughout this fiscal, leading to a funding crunch.
The slowdown in corporate revenue growth over the last one year has begun to reflect in India Inc's capital expenditure, or capex. The country's top listed companies are going slow on fresh investment in capacity expansion, in line with a deceleration in their top line growth. The combined fixed assets of the listed companies, excluding banking, finance services and insurance (BFSI) and the government-owned oil & gas firms, were up 10.1 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) during April-September 2023 (H1FY24) - the slowest in 18 months - as against 21.1 per cent Y-o-Y growth in H2FY23 (October 2022-March 2023) and 11.6 per cent growth in the April-September 2022 period (H1FY23).
Private sector lender ICICI Bank has revised its external benchmark lending rate (EBLR) to 8.10 per cent, and state-owned Bank of Baroda has raised the rate to 6.90 per cent with immediate effect after the RBI hiked the key repo rate. Likewise, two other public sector banks -- Bank of India and Central Bank of India -- have also raised the repo linked lending rate. In an out of turn Monetary Committee Meeting (MPC), the Reserve Bank on Wednesday announced to hike the benchmark repo rate -- the short term lending rate it charges to banks -- by 0.40 per cent to 4.40 per cent with immediate effect, aimed at taming the rising inflation caused by the global geopolitical situation.
Aviation watchdog DGCA will conduct a special audit of grounded airline Go First's facilities in the national capital and Mumbai from July 4 to 6 before approving the revival plan for resumption of flights, according to a senior official. Cash-strapped Go First stopped flying on May 3 and is undergoing a voluntary insolvency resolution process. Meanwhile, a senior executive at the airline expressed hope of resuming ticket sales -- which was paused by DGCA following the grounding of the carrier -- from July 7 or July 8 and subsequent relaunch of the operations from middle of next month.
The rally in PSBs, analysts feel, was more a knee-jerk reaction to the development, and the actual benefits will start to accrue once the addition takes place in 2024. "The actual benefit for banks from the inclusion in JP Morgan's EM Index will accrue from June 2024 onwards. "Until then, the larger fundamentals of the market will dictate the moves. "Once the initial euphoria subsides, bond markets will look to global cues which may trigger fresh selling," said Siddharth Khemka, head of retail research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
JP Morgan's decision last week to include Indian government bonds in its Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) index and the index suite from June 2024 may be a sort of blessing for India, as the move is estimated to result in an inflow of $25 billion of foreign portfolio investments into the country. The development comes at a time when the spread between the benchmark 10-year government of India bond and the 10-year US government bond has declined to its lowest level in more than 17 years. Low yield spreads make Indian bonds less attractive to foreign portfolio investors (FPIs).
After the finance minister directed public sector banks to join the account aggregator (AA) ecosystem, 5-6 major ones, including State Bank of India (SBI) and Bank of Baroda are expected to go live by July-end. Sahmati, an industry alliance for the AA ecosystem, has been working with PSU banks to get them onboarded for quite some time now. So far, Union Bank of India and Punjab National Bank (PNB) have gone live on the AA ecosystem. While Union Bank has been live for a while, PNB went live earlier this month.
The finance ministry on Thursday sought to clarify that there was no distress in household savings and the data indicated that changing consumer preference for different financial products was the real reason for the change in the pattern of household savings. The clarification comes in the backdrop of Reserve Bank of India data showing that household net financial savings rate is at its lowest in decades, at 5.1 per cent of GDP in FY23 compared to 7.2 per cent of GDP in FY22. The divergence in the data for household gross financial assets and liabilities is not a cause for concern for the government, as the loans have largely been taken to buy real assets or automobiles, the finance ministry said.
Despite the objections raised by Reserve Bank of India and Election Commission, India's politics has been funded anonymously and it is time to end this, asserts Aakar Patel.
A top-class board is important from a systemic point of view, more so at a time when the wider financial world and India Inc is chasing the same talent as banks.
The rise in consumer price index (CPI) inflation could see the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in an extended pause mode as regards interest rates, and in turn, keep the market rally in check, believe analysts. Signs of inflation cooling off in the US, however, is likely to provide some cushion as the expectations of a change in stance by the US Fed as regards interest rates is likely to aid sentiment. Back home, CPI inflation surged for the first time in five months to 4.81 per cent in June 2023, and was higher than the street's expectations of 4.58 per cent.
Bond markets, global as well as domestic, are likely headed towards hard times over the next three to six months, as higher vegetable prices, rising fuel costs, and improved wages may keep inflation hot, believe analysts, who expect the yields to hit 7.5 per cent in the near-term from the current 7.234 per cent. In this backdrop, they suggest investors can put in money in funds/instruments with residual maturity of 4 to 6 years, while longer-term investors can allocate cautiously to the longer end in the range beyond 7 years.
India's inclusion in JP Morgan's bond index can channel billions of dollars into India. How will the government securities market handle it?
New investment projects announced in the manufacturing sector declined in the three months ended June 2023. The value of new projects was lower than in the March quarter, as well as the year-ago period, shows data from project tracker the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). The new project announcements worth around Rs 85,000 crore in the manufacturing segment in June were a 48 per cent decline from the Rs 1.6 trillion in March and a 66 per cent decline from the Rs 2.5 trillion seen in June 2022.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has sought details about lenders' exposures to the Adani Group, banking sources said, a day after the conglomerate withdrew the Rs 20,000-crore follow on public offer (FPO) of its flagship firm Adani Enterprises amid the steep fall in its stock prices. On Wednesday, Swiss lender Credit Suisse stopped accepting bonds by Adani group companies as collaterals for margin lending. The going has been tough for the diversified conglomerate over the past week ever since US-based short seller Hindenburg Research levelled a slew of allegations about the group's operations, calling it the biggest corporate con ever.
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